Sports can be pretty exciting and unpredictable sometimes. For instance, a golfer can win a tournament or miss a cut in golf. This year, Luke List and Aaron Wise were the top golf DFS picks at the Desert Classic. As List had 2.8% odds, Wise had 3.2% odds for winning the tournament. These are relatively high numbers for people who believe in these two. 

However, Adam Long, a minimum-priced unpopular DFS player, had 0.2% odds based on his capability. From being unknown, he became pretty famous for beating champions. But he won while Wise and Long missed the cut, surprising everyone. 

Diversification

So, the scenario above shows how unpredictable golf can be, with a full range of possibilities. So, what’re the best means to manage this reality? First, you need to diversify your lineups up and down the pricing scale.

What’s the benefit of using a diversified approach in golf? First, you must avoid overinvesting in one golfer no matter how good he is or perceived field dominance or value. Then, you can reduce the potential damage that a golfer can cause if he misses the cut.  

Generally, adequate diversification gives more golfers good exposure. Phil Mickelson was another golfer that most fields overlooked. Phil had 2.4% odds to win but finished second following Long in fantasy points. The undiversified strategy may have completed Mickelson.

In essence, diversifying your lineups allows frequent volatility to work for you rather than against you. That’s why it’s the best way to manage golf tournaments. 

Golfer’s Form

In golf, this is a common phrase you’ll hear experts talk about the importance of a golfer’s form. What does it mean? It’s referred to as a golfer being hot or cold. The target players are the best golf DFS picks in good form in every tournament of interest. And the hope of choosing these players is the hope of carrying their success to the next game. 

As per recent data, there is a weaker predictor of short-term golf performance than long-term performance. That’s because of the volatility in golf. Remember that even the best golfers may go down, sometimes resulting in a price drop. 

So, we’re saying; instead of focusing on golfers that most of the fields are targeting-strong form, you can target some proven golfers at a price and ownership discount. 

It’s not easy to go for golfers who’ve been missing cuts quite often, but if they have a solid historical stat, they have a high chance of bouncing back to their usual performance. But you must weigh the short-term and the long-term historical results, which is the best way to approach the market’s inefficiency. 

In addition, increasing your sample size is one of the best ways to tackle players’ unpredictability. 

Use a Balanced Statistical Approach.

Golf DFS picks are usually on specific statistics. Some of these include no injuries or other absences and creating value in sports like football and basketball. And factors like odds and course fit can be the most straightforward path to value. But these metrics might become statistically significant, as they don’t get highly related with value.

So, here is a piece of advice, don’t get too fixated on these indicators such as Vegas odds, course history, course fit, etc. Well, these numbers may not be as predictive as most people see them, and the edge they would offer may get negated by an increase in possession on the resulting top players. 

Whenever you start your research on golf or other sports, the first thing you must do is to check for the odds given in various sportsbooks. Almost all betting sites have the same proximity on the top golf DFS picks of the week. So, to be specific, you can lookout for a particular tournament happening that week. But the odds will be different; that’s why you need to check multiple sportsbooks. 

Vegas Odds

Vegas odds is a term used to depict the modern Vegas betting system in the US sportsbook. It’s a great system that enables the sports bettors to quickly read all the stats required and make a bet on the Moneyline, point spread, or other wagers. 

Line movement is another part of the Vegas odds, pretty essential. Generally, this is when the odds on a golfer change which can be in either way. However, you don’t need to focus more on small line movements, but the more significant line movements are crucial to look out for as they might indicate something good. 

Course History$ Course Fit

Now that you understand Vegas odds, that’s something you need to consider. The next thing is to look at how a player has performed in the past. Then, check how a particular player has played at the course where a tournament plays. In addition, a player’s performance on a specific type of grass where there is a tournament. Bermuda and Sawgrass are the two major ones. 

Using different stats is a valuable strategy that you should apply at a specific course, including weather change. But, unfortunately, that means you must change your approach from week to week. 

And you can get ahead of your competition if you use the above stats correctly, as most people will ignore specific course details and go for the best golf DFS picks.  

In Conclusion, implementing a balanced analytical strategy helps you create a natural diversification in your golf DFS picks lineups. As a result, you get a more viable profit. So, these strategies are worth considering whether you’re a novice or experienced in golf.