It has not been long since the Chinese Armed Forces held a large-scale exercise near the island of Taiwan in the form of a show of force. The last time, which was in August 2022 if memory serves me correctly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army responded to the open support by the United States of America of the administration of the island state of Taiwan by such a method of force. All this is easy to explain, since China considers Taiwan to be its own province and has a negative attitude toward any outside interference by other states.
What is happening today
About a week ago the agency responsible for defense of Taiwan announced a large accumulation of Chinese military equipment near the island state. About three dozen military aircraft and several ships were spotted. But no one planned to conceal this fact. So in the popular social network WeChat, which is used by almost 1 billion active users a month, there was a message from an official representative of the Chinese army Shi Yi that on December 25, 2022 patrols and practical military exercises of various branches of the Chinese army were organized, both in the air and in the sea around the island of Taiwan. We all understand that China could have conducted any exercise on its internationally recognized borders, both in a high-tech format using shooting simulators and military equipment control simulators, and conducting real exercises at equipped military ranges, etc. But no. This is, as we observe, another demonstration of force, showing decisive measures to defend the sovereignty and integrity of one’s state.
Accompanying this open demonstration of force, the Chinese government expresses its opposition to the United States’ actions toward Taiwan, seeing it as interference in their state’s affairs. Naturally, this has a negative impact on relations between China and the United States, which are already far from good.
Background to the breakdown in relations
The deterioration of relations between China and the United States began in August 2022 when U.S. Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan. During her visit, Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan’s parliament and engaged in a dialogue with the administration of the island nation. The main message of the U.S. representative was to support democracy on the island. China, however, made it clear that such visits will in no way hinder reunification with Taiwan, as according to China, Taiwan has no sovereignty.
Assumptions
An escalation of the conflict already seems inevitable and from the looks of it, the U.S. will not leave Taiwan alone. I think, as in the case of Ukraine, the “big brother” will provide military assistance, but will not get personally involved in the conflict. But given the fantastic financial costs of maintaining Ukraine’s combat effectiveness, it is a big question whether the U.S. will be strong enough to pursue such a military policy on two fronts.
