A mutated version of coronavirus, first identified in India and now circulating in the UK too, has been classified as “of concern” by public health experts.
The world is carefully monitoring this and some other new genetic types of the pandemic virus that may be able to spread more easily, make people sicker, or overpower vaccines.
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Understanding new variants can help governments adjust vaccination programmes and keep the virus under control.
Why does Covid mutate?
All viruses change as they make copies of themselves to survive and spread.
Most changes are inconsequential, and some can even harm the virus. But others can make the disease more infectious or threatening – and these mutations tend to dominate.
If lots of its human hosts have gained immunity through infection or vaccination, a virus with mutations that can evade this protection will thrive.
To work out whether a mutation is dangerous, scientists look for warning signs in the virus’s genetic code, see how it behaves in a lab, and monitor its spread in people.
What do we know about the different variants?
There are thousands of different variants of Covid circulating across the world.
Those with the most potentially concerning changes are called “variants of concern” and kept under the closest watch by health officials, and include:
The UK or Kent variant (also known as B.1.1.7) is prevalent in Britain – with more than 200,000 cases identified – and has spread to more than 50 countries and appears to be mutating again
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The South Africa variant (B.1.351) has been identified in at least 20 other countries, including the UK
The Brazil variant (P.1) has spread to more than 10 other countries, including the UK
A particular India variant (B.1.617.2) of which more than 500 cases have been seen in the UK, with some but not all linked to travel
Are the new variants more dangerous?
There is no evidence that any of them cause much more serious illness for the vast majority of people who become infected.
As with the original version, the risk remains highest for people who are elderly or have significant underlying health conditions.
But a virus being more infectious and equally dangerous will in itself lead to more deaths in an unvaccinated population.
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Some research suggests the UK variant may be associated with a 30% higher risk of death in individuals, but the evidence is not conclusive.
The advice to avoid infection remains the same for all strains: wash your hands, keep your distance, wear a face covering and be vigilant about ventilation.
How do the new variants mutate?
The UK, South Africa, Brazil and Indian variants have all undergone changes to their spike protein – the part of the virus which attaches to human cells.
One mutation, called N501Y, shared by some of them, seems to make the virus better at infecting cells and spreading.
Some experts think the UK/Kent strain may be up to 70% more infectious – although research by Public Health England suggested it’s between 30% and 50%.
The South Africa and Brazil variants also have a key mutation, called E484K, that may help the virus evade antibodies, key parts of the immune system which help bodies fight off infection.
Experts recently found a small number of cases of the UK variant that have this change too.
The India variant has some other potentially important mutations (such as L452R) that might make it more transmissible.
There is currently insufficient evidence to indicate that any of the variants recently detected in India – there a few, but only one is being deemed a “variant of concern” – cause more severe disease or might make current vaccines less effective.
Will vaccines still work against variants?
Current vaccines were designed for earlier versions of coronavirus, but scientists believe they should still work, albeit potentially less well.
One recent study suggests the Brazilian variant may resist antibodies in people who’ve already had Covid and should therefore have some immunity.
However, early lab results and real life data suggest the Pfizer vaccine can protect against the new variants, although slightly less effectively.
Data from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine team suggests it protects just as well against the Kent/UK variant. It offers less protection against the South Africa variant – but should still protect against severe illness.
Some early results suggest the Moderna vaccine is effective against the South Africa variant, although the immune response triggered may be weaker and shorter-lived.
Experts are confident existing vaccines can be redesigned to better tackle emerging mutations.
Do variants mean booster jabs are more likely?
The UK government has a deal with biopharmaceutical company CureVac to develop vaccines against future variants, and has pre-ordered 50 million doses.
Depending on how variants continue to develop, these could potentially be used to offer a booster vaccine to older or clinically vulnerable people later in the year.
Extra funding to fast-track new vaccines will help “future-proof” the UK against new coronavirus variants, the vaccines minister has said.
Existing vaccines protect against variants such as the one found in Kent, but experts say the UK needs to be prepared as the virus keeps mutating.
Nadhim Zahawi said the £29.3m funding increase would boost testing facilities at Porton Down research laboratory.
Separately, he said booster jabs would be ready to deploy from September.
Asked about reports in the Times that third jabs would be given to over-50s and those with underlying health conditions in the autumn, the vaccines minister said no decision had been made yet.
Mr Zahawi told BBC Breakfast the booster programme could begin in September “or later in the year, or early next year”.
He said clinicians would consider how well the protection from vaccines had lasted when deciding when to begin rolling out the programme.
Clinical trials will also be looking at the evidence on mixing different vaccines to see what will offer the most protection.
